Business

Why Your Grocery Bill Won’t Drop Soon: The Hidden Forces Keeping Prices

By DunePost – April 18, 2025

Jessica Martinez looks at her grocery receipt and gasps at the total: $247.83. Three years ago, the same items cost her family about $160. Her salary as an administrative assistant hasn’t kept up, not even close.

“I’ve started skipping breakfast,” she admits, while her two children finish homework at their apartment’s kitchen table. “The kids need the food more than I do.”

Martinez’s story is not alone. Families across America are making tough choices at the grocery store. They wonder why food prices are so high, even as inflation seems to be cooling down. The reasons are complex, involving corporate concentration, record profits, and systemic failures.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Corporate Profits vs. American Paychecks

When pandemic inflation started in 2021, everyone pointed to real reasons: supply chain issues, labor shortages, and more demand. Yet, three years later, grocery bills are high, even as corporate profits have soared.

SEC filings show major food corporations have kept or raised their profit margins. Kroger’s operating margin went from 2.2% in 2019 to 3.1% in 2024. They made $3.1 billion in net earnings for fiscal 2023, a 41% jump from before the pandemic.

  • Kroger’s operating margin increased from 2.2% in 2019 to 3.1% in 2024, while reporting $3.1 billion in net earnings for fiscal 2023, a 41% increase from pre-pandemic levels.
  • Nestlé reported an operating profit margin of 17.3% in 2024, up from 15.8% before the pandemic, translating to over $12 billion in profits.
  • Tyson Foods, which controls approximately 26% of the U.S. meat market, saw its profit margins peak at 12.7% during the height of inflation, nearly double its traditional 6-7% range.

But median wage growth has lagged behind inflation. Nominal wages have gone up about 15% since 2020. Yet, real purchasing power has dropped for most Americans.

Rakeen Mabud, chief economist at the Groundwork Collaborative, says companies are not just passing costs along. They’re adding extra price increases because they can. When everyone raises prices, it’s easy to push margins even higher.

This is called “greedflation” by some economists. A 2023 Oxfam report analyzed major food corporations’ earnings calls. It found executives talking about “pricing strategies” and “margin recovery initiatives” with shareholders. They emphasized their ability to pass costs to consumers while making more money.

When SNAP Benefits Snap: America’s Hidden Hunger Crisis

For Denise Wilson in rural Georgia, the math doesn’t add up anymore. The 38-year-old home health aide and her two teenagers get $423 monthly in SNAP benefits. Three years ago, that covered about 70% of their grocery needs. Today, it barely covers half the month.

“By the third week, we’re eating a lot of ramen and peanut butter,” Wilson explains. “The benefits didn’t go up with the prices.”

Wilson is one of millions of Americans struggling with the gap between nutrition assistance and food costs. The USDA’s Thrifty Food Plan shows the cost of a nutritionally adequate diet went up 28% between 2020 and 2024. But SNAP benefit increases have only been about 18% in the same time.

The 2021 boost to SNAP benefits was the largest in the program’s history. It briefly improved food security. But as prices kept rising, an estimated 9 million more Americans reported food insecurity in 2024 than before the pandemic.

“We’re seeing people who’ve never needed food assistance before,” says Miguel Carrera, director of the Northern Plains Food Bank. “Working families, seniors on fixed incomes, they simply can’t absorb these price increases.”

SNAP Cycling: The Cycle of Hunger and Food Insecurity

A growing trend is “SNAP cycling,” where families eat well when they get benefits. Then, they cut back as the month goes on and money runs out. Studies from the University of Michigan show this can harm health, hurt kids’ school work, and stress out parents.

Four Companies, One Checkout Line: How Consolidation Drives Prices

High grocery prices are a big issue. Knowing who controls our food helps us understand why. Over 30 years, the food market has shrunk to a few big players.

Here are some numbers:

  • Four companies (JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill, and National Beef) control about 85% of U.S. beef processing.
  • PepsiCo, Kellogg’s, General Mills, and Post own over 70% of the breakfast cereal market.
  • Just two companies, Kraft Heinz and Unilever, make about 60% of packaged foods in stores.

“High concentration means little competition,” says Diana Moss, former president of the American Antitrust Institute. “These big companies don’t have to lower prices because people have few choices.”

The pandemic and inflation helped these big firms test how much they could raise prices. They found people will keep buying food no matter the cost.

Christopher Mitchell, a professor at Cornell University, points out another issue. “Price hikes stick, but cuts don’t. When costs go up, like during the Ukraine conflict, companies quickly raise prices. But when costs fall, they don’t lower prices.”

The numbers back this up. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wheat, corn, and soybean costs have dropped significantly, but bread and cereal prices have remained relatively stable.

Lobbying Against Relief: The Political Economy of Food Inflation

The government hasn’t done much to help with food prices. This isn’t a coincidence. The food and agriculture sector spent over $175 million on lobbying in 2023, OpenSecrets shows.

When states suggested price caps on food in 2022, the industry resisted. The Consumer Brands Association spent $11.2 million to fight what it called “counterproductive price controls.” It said they would cause shortages.

When the Federal Trade Commission looked into meat price gouging, the North American Meat Institute increased its lobbying by 64%.

“There’s a close relationship between regulators and the industries they oversee,” says Zephyr Teachout, an antitrust expert. “Many FTC and USDA officials have ties to the companies they regulate.”

This lobbying has blocked most efforts to tackle food inflation. Instead, the focus is on monetary policy, like Federal Reserve rate hikes. But economists say these aren’t enough to fight corporate price-setting.

Community Solutions in a Broken System

At 7:30 a.m. on a Saturday, the line is long at the Central District Community Fridge in Seattle. Volunteers put fresh produce from local farmers in fridges for anyone to take.

“No paperwork, no questions, no shame,” says organizer Jamila Washington. “Just neighbors helping neighbors eat.”

Community fridges, with their colorful murals and volunteer teams, have grown across the U.S. There are now about 800, up from fewer than 50 before the pandemic. They’re part of a growing network helping with food inflation.

Other creative solutions include:

  • Direct farmer-to-family programs like Farm Fresh Connect in Vermont which enables SNAP recipients to purchase directly from local producers at 30-40% below supermarket prices.
  • Buying clubs, where neighborhoods pool resources for bulk purchases, cut out retail markups.
  • Seed libraries and community gardens provide growing resources to urban residents, which is important as fresh produce prices have risen sharply.

Ashley Henderson runs @LACommunityFridge on Instagram, coordinating 17 fridges across Los Angeles. “We’re seeing overwhelming demand,” she says. “These were supposed to be temporary emergency measures during COVID, but they’ve become essential infrastructure for thousands of people.”

While these community solutions provide critical immediate relief, experts caution they cannot replace systemic reform. “Mutual aid is beautiful and necessary right now,” says food systems researcher Catherine D’Ignazio. “But we shouldn’t normalize a system where working families need charity to eat properly.”

A Path Forward: Policy Solutions on the Horizon

Despite the political headwinds, several promising policy approaches have gained traction in recent months:

Enhanced antitrust enforcement: The Department of Justice has signaled increased scrutiny of food industry mergers and acquisitions. A pending antitrust suit against one major meat processor could establish important precedents for the industry.

Price gouging legislation: The proposed Excessive Corporate Profits Tax would impose graduated tax rates on corporate profits exceeding pre-pandemic averages, potentially discouraging extreme margin expansion during inflationary periods.

Transparency requirements: Several states have introduced legislation requiring large grocery chains to provide advance notice and justification for significant price increases on essential items.

Strengthened SNAP benefits: Bipartisan support is building for a revised SNAP benefit calculation that would better reflect actual grocery costs and regional price variations.

Meanwhile, a growing consumer movement advocates for strategic shifts in purchasing habits. This includes boycotts of brands with the highest profit margin increases and support for independent grocers and direct-from-producer options.

When Will Relief Come?

For shoppers hoping grocery prices will soon return to pre-pandemic levels, economists offer little encouragement. Most projects predict that food inflation will continue outpacing general inflation through at least 2026, with prices stabilizing at a new, higher baseline.

“We’ve established new price points across the food system,” explains retail analyst Neil Saunders. “Barring significant regulatory intervention or a major economic downturn, companies have little incentive to substantially reduce prices.”

Back in her kitchen, Jessica Martinez portions leftover spaghetti into containers for tomorrow’s lunch for the kids and her dinner after work. “They keep saying the economy is doing great, but I don’t see it in my refrigerator,” she says. “Something in the system is broken when working full-time doesn’t cover basic groceries without cutting corners.”

As millions of Americans continue making similar calculations at kitchen tables across the country, the question remains whether political will can match the growing public demand for meaningful action on food affordability, or whether high grocery prices will become yet another “new normal” in post-pandemic America.

If you’re experiencing food insecurity, text “FOOD” to 304-304 to locate assistance programs in your area. To find community fridges near you, visit communityrefrigerator.com or search social media with hashtags #communityfridge and yo

DunePost

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